Here's my comment link.
Here's the orginal post by Kos. This is a tipping point blog post. Daily Kos is the most widely read blog in the country, and when Kos speaks, people listen. There's already over 400 comments on this post. Sign up for an account and post a comment.
Standard caveats aside (it's early, we don't have a set field, blah
blah blah), it's hard to see how Barack Obama loses the nomination
barring scandal or the mother-of-all gaffes.
I've been working up a few scenarios given the primary calendar
(which isn't set in stone, with states like California looking to move
up), and really, it would be Obama's race to lose.
Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will
win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will
determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing
Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama.
A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape
moving forward.
Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and
Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be
fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson
because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New
Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture
thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina
may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the
state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their
entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American
population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah,
they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the
dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles.
There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an
Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way
anyone stops him.
Again, we don't know what the final field will look like, so things
can dramatically change. But an entrance into the race would make Obama
the prohibitive favorite. If politics is about seizing opportunities,
it would seem a no-brainer for him to enter the race now.
